The Downtown Reality Check

November 17, 2025 By

Downtowns of major cities have traditionally had lower vacancy rates than the suburbs. For decades, the downtown core was where businesses wanted to be, where foot traffic was guaranteed, and where commercial property owners could count on steady demand. The pandemic in 2020 changed all that.

Post-2020 work changes are hitting commercial owners hard. The reliable tenants who once filled their downtown office towers are reconsidering their space needs, locations, and long-term commitments. For commercial property owners, understanding these shifts is essential for making informed decisions about their properties.

Understanding Population Movement Patterns

The most fundamental question facing downtown commercial property owners is: where did the people go? EASI Ring Studies can identify where people were before 2020 and where they are now. This isn’t guesswork or broad market trends; it’s specific, actionable data that shows exactly how the market has changed.

Drill down into the data using Block Groups, ZIP codes, and ZIP+4s to see where the changes really happened. Maybe the financial district emptied, but the arts district held steady. Perhaps the suburbs saw massive population shifts while other residential areas in town remained relatively stable. This granular view separates successful property owners from those struggling to adapt to the new market reality.

Key Factors Reshaping Downtown Commercial Real Estate

Several key factors are driving the changes in downtown commercial real estate. Understanding each one helps property owners make informed decisions about their properties and tenant relationships.

1. Transportation and Commuting Changes

Commuting times increased as public transit options reduced frequency in 2020, and many services have not returned to pre-pandemic levels. What used to be a short transit ride has turned into full-hour commutes with multiple transfers. Many people also prefer to drive alone, increasing the number of vehicles on the road, such as the 28.8% of San Francisco workers who do so on their commute. Many workers who might’ve returned to their downtown office stayed remote (like the nearly 20% of San Francisco workers) or work a hybrid schedule rather than deal with longer, less reliable commutes.

This shift affects more than just office tenants. Retail businesses, restaurants, and service providers that rely on commuter foot traffic are observing distinct patterns throughout the day and week.

2. Residential Migration Patterns

Demographic shifts occurred as people relocated further from downtown areas seeking affordability or larger living spaces during the pandemic. The home that was “too far” when commuting five days a week suddenly became reasonable when commuting twice a week or not at all. 

These demographic shifts create ripple effects throughout the commercial real estate market. The customer base for downtown businesses has literally moved miles away, changing everything from lunch-hour traffic to after-work shopping patterns.

3. Infrastructure and Construction Impact

Infrastructure expansion for public transit projects is now severely impacting movement and placing additional pressure on urban traffic, particularly in and around city centers. Many were started in 2020 due decreased ridership, but budgetary changes and staffing fluctuations dragged out these projects by years, in some cases, impacting today’s commuters.

These projects will ultimately benefit downtown areas, but they create short-term accessibility challenges that affect commercial property values and tenant satisfaction during construction periods. They further affect the flow of people into the downtown as lengthy delays reduce productivity, affect morale, and decrease the customer base for retailers in the area.

4. Return-to-Office Reality

Return-to-Office (RTO) mandates have led to a slight increase in usage. Companies are primarily using this time to consolidate their operations and reduce their overall space requirements. A company that previously leased seven floors might consolidate to two floors with a hybrid workforce, move to a smaller footprint entirely, or even relocate to a location better suited to their needs.

The result is increased occupancy rates in some buildings, but overall lower demand for total commercial space across downtown areas.

Using Data to Stay Ahead of Tenant Decisions

Commercial property owners can anticipate potential actions by their tenants by analyzing demographic data and conducting their own market analysis. Rather than waiting to hear about lease renewals or space reductions, successful property owners are using data to anticipate changes and proactively address tenant needs.

Take a look at Aledo, Texas, approximately 20 miles outside of Fort Worth. Studying an EASI Ring Study for Aledo, we see that the population increased by nearly 8%, or approximately 100,000 people, from 2020 to 2024. And that the majority of people commute between 15 and 30 minutes to work, alone, in their vehicles.

You’d need to investigate more to determine exactly where they’re commuting to. However, a glance at these numbers suggests that many may be commuting into Fort Worth by car, as there might not be any reliable public transportation, and housing is more affordable in Aledo.

Understanding where your tenants’ employees actually live, how they commute, and what their transportation patterns look like gives you insight into whether that tenant is likely to renew, downsize, or relocate. This information allows you to plan renovations, adjust pricing strategies, or look for new tenant types before vacancy becomes a problem.

Combining Internal and External Data Sources

The most effective approach combines your internal property data with external demographic data from EASI to understand what’s happening in your downtown core and plan for future changes. Your internal data provides information about current tenants, lease terms, and building performance. Demographic data reveals the broader market forces affecting your tenants’ decisions.

Using the EASI Ring Report for Aledo, TX mentioned earlier, your real estate team should consider combining it with local surveys, industry data, and internal data sources to gain a deeper understanding of the specific area. Each location is unique, with its own distinct pressures and issues that impact people and businesses, so it’s essential to consider all aspects to gain the right perspective.

Together, these datasets provide a comprehensive picture that enables you to make informed decisions about capital improvements, marketing strategies, and tenant retention. You can identify which types of businesses are most likely to succeed in your buildings based on current population and commuting patterns, and determine if mixed-use development better serves the changing demographics around your properties.

Planning for the Future of Downtown Commercial Real Estate

The downtown commercial real estate market has fundamentally changed from 2019 patterns. The shifts in work preferences, residential choices, and transportation habits represent long-term changes that successful property owners need to understand and adapt to rather than wait out.

Having access to reliable demographic data helps property owners navigate these changes effectively. Property owners who combine detailed demographic analysis with their operational knowledge are better positioned to make strategic decisions about their properties and tenant relationships.

Ready to Understand Your Downtown Real (Estate) Story?

The post-pandemic commercial real estate market requires more than intuition. It requires data-driven decision-making based on actual population and movement patterns in your specific market.

Contact EASI today to learn how our Ring Studies and detailed demographic data can help you understand exactly how your downtown market has changed. Find out what those changes mean for your commercial properties. Let’s turn uncertainty into actionable insights.